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DedeXHTTP = null; } </script> <script> function showhidediv(id){ document.getElementById(id).style.display = document.getElementById(id).style.display=='none'?'':'none'; } </script> <!--@|站公共头部--> <!-- 预处理代码区 --> <div class="main newslist"> <!--左侧--> <div class="listl"> <div class="inner"> <div class="listview2">U技</div> <div class="listlcon" style="margin-bottom:30px;"> <div class="listltitle"> <h3>深度点评I戴产业Q风口上随时要爆炸的?/h3> <p> <a class="tfontsize" href="javascript:;" >字号+</a> <span class="spanimg1">作者:{果资讯 </span> <span class="spanimg2">来源Q?a href="#" title="未知" target="_blank">未知</a></span> <span class="spanimg3">2018-11-22 19:05</span> <span class="spanimg4"><a href="#cm">我要评论</a>(<i><a href="#SOHUCS" id="changyan_count_unit"></a> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://assets.changyan.sohu.com/upload/plugins/plugins.count.js"></script></i>)</span> </p> </div> <div> <div class="say"><p>2014q智能穿戴设备火爆始l,各种产品层出不穷Q手环已泛滥Q手表正当时Q连|永都传出要做手表了,不过Q?.....</p></div> </div> </div> <div class="article-content fontSizeSmall BSHARE_POP"> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 0;"> <img border="0" src="/uploads/allimg/181122/1Z50KL1-0.jpg" /></p> <p> <strong>2014q智能穿戴设备火爆始l,各种产品层出不穷Q手环已泛滥Q手表正当时Q连|永都传出要做手表了,不过Q智能设备业真正的发展如何Q回这一q_或许我们能换个角度理解可I戴讑֤。本文作者陈根ؓI戴产业专家、智能家居业专Ӟ产业变革专家?/strong></p> <p> 今年的智能穿戴品可谓大爆发Q但是商业化的普及却q没有概늁爆。可I戴产品从谷歌眼镜、娱乐控制、儿童监护、健康医疗、智能家居、智能服饰到通讯{领域,资本云集Q技术比拼加速?/p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>1?014全球可穿戴设备技术\?/strong></span></p> <p> 在资本的推动以及媒体的关注下Q智能穿戴技术进入了不同的领域进行探索。但从目前全球的技术\径来看,I戴目前的技术\径主要分为四条:一条是以三星等传统通讯企业Z表的可穿戴设备的路径Q就是基于通讯的智能穿戴品;一条是以耐克{传l运动娱乐企业ؓ代表的可I戴讑֤的\径,是Z定位、运动娱乐的I戴产品Q第三条则是以谷歌眼镜ؓ代表的可I戴讑֤的\径,是Z眼镜cȝ虚拟现实或沉式的智能穿戴品;W四条则是以UdȝZ的可I戴讑֤路径Q就是基于血压、心率、血p、新陈代谢等斚w的监?/p> <p> 当然q有其它一些方面的探烦Q尤其是一些垂直、细分领域的探烦在不断加深。但?014q的情况来看Q可I戴产品在第一、二条\径上的商业化E度相对比较高,但是距离商业化的普及q是没有概念来的火爆?/p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>2、火爆ƈ非来自于消费者需?/strong></span></p> <p> 可穿戴业的火爆q个现象g与曾l电子商务业火爆有着cM的媄子,曄电子商务的火爆,除了产业发展势因素之外Q主要可以归lؓ两方面原因:一斚w是来源于资本推动的力量,除了各种基金资金的支持外Q另外还有大批的煤老板q入Q另外一斚w是来自于技术工E师的推动,一些技术工E师希望借着技术优势进入。今天回q头来看Q成功与zM的没几个Q这是神马原因呢Q我ȝ的结论就是,一斚w是资本不熟悉产业的商业化路径Q二是技术h员比拼技术,~Z对商业化需求的了解。不论是哪方面原因,ȝ一句话是对业商业化路径不熟悉?/p> <p> 今天来看I戴产业火爆背后很大一部分因素也是来自于这两方面,一斚w是受整体l济环境的媄响,资本的投资渠道相Ҏ限,加之Ud互联|的整个潮Q科技巨头的进入,以及媒体的关注,q些要素׃使了一些资本流向于可穿戴设备业。这些资本的向大致可分Z条\径:一条是公开的资本市场,主要是在可穿戴设备业链上的相关公司q行支持Q其中以概念股ؓ主;另外一条是VC资本的支持,主要是对一些创造业团队Q或者说是对一些有x的团队进行支持,主要以终端品的创业概念Z?/p> <p> 另外一斚w则是受国安励大学生以及U研人员自主创业政策的媄响,同时׃手机的发展已呈现饱和势Q以及移动互联网潮势的媄响,促一部分创业人群q入l分、垂直市场挖掘风口中的商业机会?/p> <p> 从目前智能概念在资本市场以及媒体领域的火爆,再结合商业化的应用接受度与普及情冉|看,昄I戴产品在商业化的实施\径上已经产生了偏差。以hZQ我一直谈h不论是怎么收购Q其本质Ҏ׃是ؓ了所谓的家居与智能穿_而是Z在移动互联网时代l箋它大数据帝国的地位,其次h不断的收购是Z资本与业探索的的需要?/p> <p> 再以三星Z子,三星是典型的商业路径依赖的结果。由于三星在通讯领域的成功,它就这U技术思考,直接从手机搬到手表上Q然后附加一些探索性的性能。在三星的第二代手表产品q未推出之前Q我曾对其下过l论Q不会在商业化方面获得很好的成功。这是一部分以通讯Z表的企业Q很难摆脱商业决{的路径依赖思维?/p> <p> q前市场情冉|看,不论是哪U情늚q入与支持,昄市场的表现情况都未能辑ֈ各方预期。这其中不仅是投资h、创业h员,包括媒体、消费者等在经历了两年多的旉后,其热情都出现了一定程度的回落?/p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>3、站到风口或许是因ؓ?/strong></span></p> <p> 可穿戴业的爆发几乎可以用一夜之间来形容Q如果真正的需求不是来自于消费者的需求推动,到底是什么风让可I戴讑֤H然之间站到了风口之上?strong>q要从两个层面去观察Q一是业发展趋势层面,q其中主要由四个斚w原因Q?/strong></p> <p> W一斚w是互联网产业发展的演变,以极快的速度从传l互联网切换CUd互联|时代,如何让一个虚拟的Ud世界以更加真实的方式存在Q就需要借助于可I戴讑֤q行诠释Q?/p> <p> W二斚w是包?G以及无线通信技术的发展Q让可穿戴设备的价值凸昑և来,q在PC互联|时代,或者说传统互联|时代,可穿戴设备的价值是很难凸显出来的,我们不太可能手上戴块表然后后面拖着跟网U去跑步Q?/p> <p> W三斚w是传lIT产业铑֜Z摩尔定律发展Q元器g性能不断提升的同时又不断的微型化Q刚好在一些环节上满了可I戴讑֤微型化的产业要求Q?/p> <p> W四斚w是大数据时代的到来,可穿戴设备成ZUd互联|、物联网时代的一个关键入口,q也正是国际巨头不惜重金要挺q可I戴讑֤的原因?/p> <p> <strong>二是资本层面Q主要也׃个方面的原因Q?/strong>W一斚w是整个国家环境不差钱了,而且在国家层面又鼓励支持创新创业Qƈl年Mh的创业提供了一个宽杄大环境;W二斚w是资本市场方面,也就是最q牛市之前的熊市Q大部分在资本市Z徘徊的资本很隑֜权重股中获利Q于是就转向于投资趋势业,助推了可I戴讑֤产业Q第三方面是整个l济形势下行Q传l业不景气Q房C投资又遭受困境,短期获利的投资渠道受阻,促资本转向于寻找趋势业?/p> <p> 正是׃以上两个层面的七个要素就促了可I戴讑֤成ؓ了风口上的猪Q资本、h才,以及媒体x炚w转向了这一行业Q促成了可穿戴设备飞速成ѝ?/p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>4、有U陷阱叫盲目跟随</strong></span></p> <p> 管可穿戴设备犹如一只站在风口上的猪Q但从今天国内企业的表现来看Q如果盲目的跟随国外的\径,q是一件很危险的事情,很容易掉入陷阱。因为很多巨_他所说的不一定是代表着它是真正要干那个方向。今天的I戴不是比拼技术、硬件的时刻Q而是需要冷静下来思考商业化路径的时刅R?/p> <p> 面对2015q_我希望资本要冷静Q技术h员要冷静Q创业者们更要冷静。而我做ؓ产业研究人员Q不希望看到太多的烈士,而是希望看到更多的壮士。智能穿戴业是一个非常特D的产业Q它不是单纯的互联网产品Q也不是单纯的硬件品,而是一个以人、设备、智能三者融合的产品?/p> <p> 所以不能简单的以互联网的思维L考智能穿戴品,也不能简单的以硬件的思维来思考智能穿戴品。而是要抓住智能穿戴的核心Q就是与人绑定,qؓ人提供更为有效、便L生活方式。只有理解了可穿戴设备的本质Q才能让我们在业商业化路径的思考中不至于迷失或t入陷阱?/p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>5、换个角度理解可I戴讑֤</strong></span></p> <p> 回顾可穿戴设备这两年所走过的\Q似乎业内外目前对于可穿戴设备的理解都有些局限。当然这跟业的发展阶段有关p,毕竟是一个新兴业,一斚w从业探索者自w的角度出发也处于一个摸索的q程Q另外一斚w从消费者的认知角度看,也还处于一个比较模p的阶段?/p> <p> 之所以目前大部分人对于可I戴讑֤的认知停留在手表、手环的层面Q这其中主要׃斚w原因Q一是受国外企业技术\U的影响Q比如耐克、三星等Q二是业在商业化的q程中,׃受到产业链技术的限制Q迫使大部分的创业h选择了从手表环节下手?/p> <p> <strong>其实可穿戴设备真正的理解是计机技术微型化之后Q一U基于移动互联网的小型计机Qƈ不局限于Z</strong>。当然就Z可穿戴而言Q也分ؓ体表外的可穿戴设备与植入式可I戴Q智能手表、手环只是体表外可穿戴设备的一UŞ态?/p> <p> 除h体可I戴之外Q还有给动物、宠物的可穿戴设备,l花草树木的监测的可I戴讑֤Q以及给工业讑֤所I戴的可I戴讑֤。其中最典型的就是GE的工业互联网Q其中最为核心的技术要素就是借助于给工业讑֤I上可穿戴设备以监测其工作,而国内在工业领域的可I戴讑֤h较国外相比,E晚了一炏V这些将会是2015q_以及往后的一个重Ҏ向?/p> <p> <strong>如果要用一句话来定义可I戴讑֤的话Q那是Q?ldquo;q接Z讑֤的钥?rdquo;?/strong>q也正是可穿戴设备与手机以及其它g之间最核心的区别,在于h与物之间的数据化q接Q这是手机无法做到的Q也是智能家居、智慧城市、或是物联网{业无法做到的Q只有可I戴讑֤可以实现。不仅是l设备戴上可I戴以实现数据化Q更是将物与行有效连接的一把智能钥匙?/p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>6、hg价g间引发争?/strong></span></p> <p> 当可I戴讑֤在手表、手环方面扎堆的时候,一U沫式供大于需的现象出C。ؓ什么我会给2014q的可穿戴设备业定义ؓ“泡沫式的供大于需”Q是因ؓ从实际的市场需求角度来看是需大于供,而从当前的业实际情冉|看出C一U非正常的供大于需Q因此这U非正常的供需关系Ş成了短暂的沫现象。而在泡沫中竞争的不同角色Z获得市场Q通常采取最为直接的方式是通过h战,或者借用所谓的互联|思维瞎颠覆?/p> <p> 其实形成q种争议的关键在于可I戴讑֤在用戯买后Q普遍出现用h觉h格大于h|LU买贵了的感觉。这个问题在我看来,主要出在h与hg间的配置错位。也可以理解Z业在定h时所思考的功能、服务、性能{,在用户实际用中出现错位。这U错位就会容易给人带来错觉,觉得q个产业问题很大Q一些品在忽悠Q其实这一斚w是新兴业发展的一个过E;另外一斚w是在宣传的时候,表达方式或许Ơ精准?/p> <p> <strong>在我看来Q决定着可穿戴设备h格高低的要素无非三个环节Q品硬件本w的成本+增值的应用服务+用户的生心理体验?/strong>其中产品g本n的成本在同一个档ơ上的差异不会太大,管通过产品g本n所能获取的利润相对透明Q也比较有限Q但产品g本n军_着产品的层ơ以及后面两个要素的定h?/p> <p> 增值的应用服务+用户的生心理体验则是军_h高低的核心部分,也是定h高低的关键部分。同h手环Q微软最新发布的售h1200多元Q结果微软的脱销了。因此对于可I戴讑֤而言Q利润不是由产品本n的零部g成本军_Q而是q件之外的价值决定?/p> <p> 从目前比较火爆的手表、智能手环、智能眼镜层面来看,增值的应用服务+用户的生心理体验斚wq需要发力。或者可以通俗的理解ؓQ硬件本w更多的是侧重于成本的h格定P而后两者则是硬件之外的附加价|体现的是价倹{?/p> <p> 而可I戴讑֤的这Uhg货币形式q行体现的时候,所表现的Ş式就是h根{当价D素还没有发挥出来的时候,用户的h格敏感度会׃h值关注{Ud产品本n的硬件关注上。当消费者的h决策被{Ud产品本n的时候,消费者就会从g成本的层面去衡量h。比如我们去购买塑料水桶Q我们的消费决策是品本w,而非产品的h|此时我们通常的h格高低衡量依据是塑料原材料的h?/p> <p> 今天一些消费者认为可I戴讑֤늚原因昄不是h问题Q是消费者的消费决策x点ƈ未从产品本n转移Ch值点上,容易在h与hg间生错位。因此,在我看来Q决定着可穿戴设备h格的q不是可I戴讑֤的硬件本w,而是Zg所提供的h倹{我们赋予品的用户实际使用价D高,h也就高Q而品硬件本w只是h格决{的一个基参照Q这些h值环节正是可I戴讑֤产业接下来需要发力解决的方向?/p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>7、VC不怕死的真正原因或许在q里</strong></span></p> <p> 但不?014q整个可I戴讑֤产业的商业化如何不给力,或者说未能l投资h带来预期Q但依然无法LVC的l关注。而目前在q个领域扎堆的也当属VC和创投,昄不是q些资本不怕失败,而其不怕死的原因或许是因ؓq些原因?/p> <p> <strong>q些投资机构通常对于势产业和爆发力强的产业Q通俗的说是对于能给资本带来梦想的业比较感兴趣?/strong>我在观察Q发现资本有两个很重要的Ҏ,一个就是它是逐利性的Q资本一定要获得很高的回报,要追求h倹{追求hDE当中g伸另外一个原则,是它需要梦惻I资本市场有点cM于赌博的游戏Q所以我们一定要有一个梦惌资本能够不断的像击鼓传花一hq个。在q两个原则下面,可穿戴设备业刚好符合资本市场的Ҏ?/p> <p> 在这个互联网以及互联|思维很热的时期里面,我ȝ了一下,可穿戴设备核心改变之一是用户_度。在PC互联|的时代Q用L度是按小时计的Q出行的时候要带着一个电脑,基本上每天花一个小时甚x多的旉对着电脑处理关于qx工作和生zM的一些事情。当CUd互联|的时代Q我们发现用L度又被改变了Q就不是按小时计,变成按分钟计。而且按分钟计有一个很有意思的现象Q有时候走在大学的校园里面Q我发现在q去没有Ud互联|的时候,谈恋׃个hq是牉|的,Ud互联|这个时代两个h各拿各的手机Q各看各的,所有碎片化旉都被挤占了。这q到移动互联网概念Z么这么火爆?</p> <p> 因ؓ它拥有了梦想Q过去说PC互联|按时Q现在说l架用户的时候已l变到按分钟来的Q小时到分钟q中间又充满了无限的商机。到了可I戴时代Q就不是分钟了,q时候就按秒了,戴在你n上,以秒为单位来计算旉_度。这时候就l资本带来了更大的想象空间?/p> <p> 另外一斚w是可穿戴设备赋予了互联|品的物理属性,让它变成一个看得见、摸得着在我们n上用的互联|的一个品。这两方面在我看来是吸引资本大Dq入的关键要素?/p> <p><strong>转蝲h明出处?/strong></p> </div> <!-- 心情 --> <div class="mood"> <div id="cyEmoji" role="cylabs" data-use="emoji"></div> </div> <!-- @心情 --> <div class="tag"> <div class="tagtitle"></div> <a href="/tags.php?/深度/">深度</a><a href="/tags.php?/产业/">产业</a> <div class="share"> <a href="javascript:;" class="sharea1">分n到新微?/a> <a href="javascript:;" class="sharea2">分n到腾讯微?/a> <a href="javascript:;" class="sharea3">收藏</a> </div> </div> <div class="avow"> <div class="avowtitle"></div> <!-- 声明 --> 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